为提高采场声发射事件率预报精度,将采场声发射事件率不同的单个预测模犁的预测值作为函数链神经网络的原始输入值,并将原始输入值按正交的三角函数扩展得到的数值作为函数链神经网络扩展输入值,在分析函数链神经嘲络拟合充要条件的基础上,结合模糊自适应变权重算法计算函数链神经网络权重,对采场声发射事件率进行基于模糊自适应变权重算法的函数链神经网络预测,对其预测结果再进行函数链神经网络算法拟合,然后结合采场冒顶尖点突变模型的判别式对采场冒顶进行预报.某铅锌矿采场冒顶预报结果表明,基于模糊自适应变权重算法的函数链神经网络预测方法的预测误差小于0.3%,可实现采场冒顶精确预报.
参考文献
| [1] | 程卫民,苏绍桂,辛嵩.系统安全性预测模型与系统的建立[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2003(04):533-535. |
| [2] | 曾康生,胡乃联.煤矿系统安全预测模型与组合预测[J].煤炭学报,2008(10):1122-1125. |
| [3] | 刘素兵 .组合预测模型的构建及其应用[D].西安理工大学,2008. |
| [4] | BATES J M;GRANGER C W I .Combination of forecasts[J].Operational Research Quarterly,1969,20(04):451-468. |
| [5] | AKSU C;GUNTER S I.An empirical analysis of the accuracy of SA,OLS,ERLS and NRLS combination forecasts[J].International Journal of Forecasting,1992(08):27-43. |
| [6] | HARVEY N;HARRIES C .Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2004,20(03):391-409. |
| [7] | PALIT A K;POPOVIC D.Nonlinear combination of forecasts using artificial neural network,fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy approaches[A].San Antonio:The IEEE Neural Networks Council,2000:566-561. |
| [8] | ZOU Hui;YANG Yu-hong .Combining time series models for forecasting[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2004,20(01):69-84. |
| [9] | Xiaowo Tang;Zongfang Zhou;Yong Shi .The Variable Weighted Functions of Combined Forecasting[J].Computers & Mathematics with Applications: An International Journal,2003(4/5):723-730. |
| [10] | CHEN Yu;ZHANG Qi-sen .Application of functional-link neural network in evaluation of sublayer suspension based on FWD test[J].Journal of Central South University of Technology,2004(2):225-228. |
| [11] | WU Xiao-ling,WANG Chuan-hai,CHEN Xi,XIANG Xiao-hua,ZHOU Quan.KALMAN FILTERING CORRECTION IN REAL-TIME FORECASTING WITH HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL[J].水动力学研究与进展B辑,2008(03):391-397. |
| [12] | Mohammadi K;Eslami HR;Kahawita R .Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006(1-2):293-299. |
| [13] | Forecasting Innovation Diffusion Of Products Using Trend-weightedfuzzy Time-series Model[J].Expert Systems with Application,2009(2 Pt.1):1826-1832. |
| [14] | Nedaa Agami;Amir Atiya;Mohamed Saleh;Hisham El-Shishiny .A neural network based dynamic forecasting model for Trend Impact Analysis[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2009(7):917-931. |
| [15] | 鄂加强,张华美,龚金科,王耀南.基于函数链神经网络的管道煤气流量计量系统[J].中南大学学报（自然科学版）,2006(05):976-980. |
| [16] | 胡力耘;谷强;卢杰持 .函数链神经网络在火箭大喷管加工中的应用[J].大连理工大学学报,1997,37(04):443-446. |
| [17] | 傅鹤林;桑玉发 .采场冒顶的声发射预测预报[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1996,15(02):109-114. |
| [18] | 鄂加强,王耀南,龚金科,李春生.一种新的非线性模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型[J].模糊系统与数学,2006(04):123-127. |
| [19] | G.J. Tsekouras;E.N. Dialynas;N.D. Hatziargyriou;S. Kavatza .A non-linear multivariable regression model for midterm energy forecasting of power systems[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2007(12):1560-1568. |
上一张
下一张
上一张
下一张
计量
- 下载量()
- 访问量()
文章评分
- 您的评分：
-
10%
-
20%
-
30%
-
40%
-
50%