文中对聚氯乙烯（PVC）薄膜在实际应用环境中的使用寿命进行了快速可靠的预测。通过加速寿命试验,以断裂伸长率下降至其初始值的50%为失效指标,对PVC薄膜在户外环境因子（紫外光和热）协同作用下的老化动力学进行了研究,利用威布尔统计方程分析老化失效数据,并使用Temperature-non-thermal模型建立外推关系式,确立了PVC薄膜的寿命-环境因子统计学关系式,模拟了PVC薄膜寿命分布在环境因子（热和强紫外光）协同作用下的变化规律。最后,应用上述寿命-环境因子关系式,对PVC薄膜在上海地区的户外使用寿命进行了预测,得出150μm厚的PVC薄膜曝露于上海地区时,户外使用寿命为13个月。
A statistical model with temperature and UV as stress types for estimating the service lifetime of poly（vinyl chloride）（PVC） film was presented.It was developed that the method of accelerated life testing combined with numerical simulation.Tensile tests were performed on unaged and aged PVC film specimens,and a reduction in elongation-at-break to 50% of the unaged value was used as the lifetime limiting criterion.The Weibull distribution was chosen as an underlying life distribution to analyze the time to failure data,and the temperature-non-thermal relationship was selected to deduce the lifetime at natural and service stress.For the parameter estimation in the model,the maximum likelihood parameter estimation（MLE） method which was performed in the program ALTA PRO 7 was used.Using this model,the service life for PVC film under Shanghai environment is predicted with the characteristic life value of 13 months.
参考文献
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