尾矿库溃坝影响范围预测是金属矿山环境影响评价的重点，但目前尚没有系统、统一的评价方法，一般采用经验类比和经验公式推理分析估算确定。针对包气带渗透性强的开阔地区采用单沟泥石流经验预测公式和地下水对流扩散模式对尾矿库溃坝后泥石流覆盖范围和地下水影响范围及程度进行定量分析评价，得出了某尾矿库一旦溃坝后泥石流覆盖范围为坝下游58．15 hm2，事故发生4年后地下水最大超标范围2．4 km。该尾矿库溃坝影响范围预测评价，为同地区、同类型项目环境评价和环境管理者决策提供依据和参考。
Evaluation for the impact range of dam failure is highlighted in the process of environmental impact as-sessment of metal mines .However,till now,there is no systematic and universal evaluation measure for it .What is com-monly used are the analogy and the inference through empirical formula methods .This paper adopted the empirical for-mula of single debris flow for the highly permeable open area in aeration zones and quantitative analysis evaluation for the impact degree and range of groundwater advection diffusion pattern after dam failure on debris flow and groundwa -ter.The results showed that the impact range of dam failure is 58.15 hm2 downstream,and for years after the dam fail-ure the maximum range of over-standard groundwater is 2.4 km.This provides basis and reference for environmental impact assessment and environmental management decision in similar areas .
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